Белая книга для Cisco Cisco 4404 Wireless LAN Controller
Total Economic Impact Study of Unified Wireless Network
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Table 15: Total Benefits, Non-Risk-Adjusted
Benefits
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Total
Present
value
Reduction in on-going administrative
cost
cost
$106,872 $106,872 $106,872 $320,616 $265,775
Reduction in on-going RF monitoring
and rogue access point detection
and rogue access point detection
$40,000 $40,000 $40,000 $120,000 $99,474
Reduction in help desk support costs
$88,800
$88,800
$88,800
$266,400
$220,832
Improvement in end-user productivity
$18,000
$18,000
$18,000
$54,000
$44,763
Reduction in administrative time to set
up and monitor guest accesses
up and monitor guest accesses
$8,640 $8,640 $8,640 $25,920 $21,486
Improvement in visitors' productivity —
cost to the business
cost to the business
$27,000 $27,000 $27,000 $81,000 $67,145
Total $289,312
$289,312
$289,312
$867,936
$719,475
Source: Forrester Research, Inc.
Risk
Risk is the third component within the TEI model; it is used as a filter to capture the uncertainty
surrounding different cost and benefit estimates. If a risk-adjusted ROI still demonstrates a
compelling business case, it raises confidence that the investment is likely to succeed because the
risks that threaten the project have been taken into consideration and quantified. The risk-adjusted
numbers should be taken as “realistic” expectations, since they represent the expected values
considering risk. In general, risks affect costs by raising the original estimates, and they affect
benefits by reducing the original estimates.
surrounding different cost and benefit estimates. If a risk-adjusted ROI still demonstrates a
compelling business case, it raises confidence that the investment is likely to succeed because the
risks that threaten the project have been taken into consideration and quantified. The risk-adjusted
numbers should be taken as “realistic” expectations, since they represent the expected values
considering risk. In general, risks affect costs by raising the original estimates, and they affect
benefits by reducing the original estimates.
For the purpose of this analysis, Forrester risk-adjusts cost and benefit estimates to better reflect
the level of uncertainty that exists for each estimate. The TEI model uses a triangular distribution
method to calculate risk-adjusted values. To construct the distribution, it is necessary to first
estimate the low, most likely, and high values that could occur within the current environment. The
risk-adjusted value is the mean of the distribution of those points.
the level of uncertainty that exists for each estimate. The TEI model uses a triangular distribution
method to calculate risk-adjusted values. To construct the distribution, it is necessary to first
estimate the low, most likely, and high values that could occur within the current environment. The
risk-adjusted value is the mean of the distribution of those points.
Forrester defines two types of investment risk associated with this analysis: implementation and
impact risk. Implementation risk is the risk that a proposed technology investment may deviate
from the original resource requirements needed to implement and integrate the investment,
resulting in higher costs than anticipated. Impact risk refers to the risk that the business or
technology needs of the organization may not be met by the technology investment, resulting in
lower overall total benefits. The greater the uncertainty, the wider the potential range of outcomes
for cost and benefit estimates. Quantitatively capturing investment risk by directly adjusting the
financial estimates results in a more meaningful way and offers a more accurate projection of the
return on investment.
impact risk. Implementation risk is the risk that a proposed technology investment may deviate
from the original resource requirements needed to implement and integrate the investment,
resulting in higher costs than anticipated. Impact risk refers to the risk that the business or
technology needs of the organization may not be met by the technology investment, resulting in
lower overall total benefits. The greater the uncertainty, the wider the potential range of outcomes
for cost and benefit estimates. Quantitatively capturing investment risk by directly adjusting the
financial estimates results in a more meaningful way and offers a more accurate projection of the
return on investment.
The following general management and process risks were considered in this study: